This book deals with the philosophical and methodological aspects of information technology and the collection and analysis of data to provide insight into a problem, whether it is scientific research, policy making by government or decision making in our daily lives. The author seeks to dispels the doubts that chance is an expression of our ignorance which makes accurate prediction impossible and illustrates how our thinking has changed with quantification of uncertainty by showing that chance is no longer the obstructor but a way of expressing our knowledge. Indeed, chance can create and help in the investigation of truth. This theory is eloquently demonstrated with numerous examples of applications that statistics is the science, technology and art of extracting information from data and is based on a study of the laws of chance. It shows how statistical ideas played a vital role in scientific and other investigations even before statistics was recognized as a separate discipline, and how statistics is now evolving as a versatile, powerful and inevitable tool in diverse fields of human endeavour such as literature, legal matters, industry, archaeology and medicine. The use of statistics to the layman in improving the quality of life through wise decision-making is emphasized.
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最近一个例子是“智商指数的欺骗(IQ Fraud)”(《今日心理学》,1976年12月,第33页)涉及到伯特 (Cyril Lodowic Burt),他被称为英国的教育心理学之父。按照伯特的理论,人的智商的差别一般是遗传的,不受社会因素的影响,他的理论明显由伪造数据所支持,这会影响政府按照错误的的方向考虑儿童教育。
人类一切努力的最终目的是追求真理,而严格意义下的真理是不可得到的,替代的是要寻求可接受的知识。严格的讲,知识不是真理,但它应最好的应用真理。
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